In this timely lecture, explore the dramatic evolution of Europe's political landscape from 2025 to projected scenarios for 2027. The presentation traces the deepening divide between pro-EU centrists and liberals and rising conservative-nationalist forces, often labeled anti-woke or reformist, a shift that increasingly overrides traditional left-right lines.

Drawing on 2025 parliamentary compositions, averaged polling trends, and country-specific dynamics (with a focus on Poland, France, Germany, the UK, and others), the talk examines drivers like migration crises, war fatigue in Ukraine, economic pressures, and institutional tensions (e.g., cohabitation risks in France or presidential vetoes in Poland). It presents two forecast variants for 2027: a moderate scenario with gains in Poland, the UK (potential Reform UK surge and early elections), and limited ripple effects; and a maximalist one involving breakthroughs in France (National Rally presidential win) and possibly Germany, leading to a broader conservative-nationalist bloc, potential EU decentralization, altered qualified majority voting dynamics in the Council, and strains in NATO/transatlantic ties. Participants will gain insight into key leaders (e.g., Jordan Bardella, Alice Weidel, Giorgia Meloni, Slawomir Mentzen), the fragility of current centrist cordons sanitaires, and whether Europe faces a true "counterrevolution" or contained adjustments.

Expect a balanced, evidence-based discussion of risks, opportunities, and implications for European integration—no crystal ball, but grounded projections from real data and trends. This class is ideal for those interested in current affairs, history's echoes, and what might come next for the continent.

Jaroslaw Szczepanski trained as a political scientist and lawyer. He is an assistant professor at the University of Warsaw in Poland and was a 2021 Fulbright Fellow at OSU. He recently conducted research at Victoria University of Wellington.